Sandy Update 20121030 0900

Sandy came ashore yesterday evening around the Atlantic City, New Jersey area.  New York city has had significant flooding in the subway system and other areas.  The wind around the Walworth, NY area was quite sustained for a long period of time although it has died down quite a bit now.  Currently it is out of the ENE at 8 miles per hour.  My peak wind reading occurred at 0225 am with a reading of 38.2 mph.  My location is fairly sheltered so that is rather high, although it is not an all time record for this location.  My all time record is 40.7 mph on November 17, 2006.

We only had 1.26 inches of rain in the last 24 hours.  That is down quite a bit from the GFS model run which was predicting rainfall in the 2 to 3 inch rain totals.  With Sandy still in the western Maryland – Pennsylvania area and forecast to move northward, there will be more significant rainfall to come.

Here are the 0700 conditions, Light Rain, Temp 54.3F, DewPoint 51.7F, Relative Humidity 91%, Barometer rising 29.06, Winds ENE 8 mph.

Sandy 20121029 1530

Sandy is moving to the west as expected.  Forward speed is now North West @ 26 mph.  Landfall will be around Atlantic City, NJ in the next couple of hours.  Satellite photos appear to show it is starting to move on shore as of 1530.

Conditions here are going downhill.  The wind gusts have been coming up over the last couple of hours.  I was down south of here in the Canandaigua area and the wind was gusting quite a bit over the open fields.

Conditions as of 1600 today: Cloudy, Temp 48.7, Dew Point 47.7F, Relative Humidity 96%, Barometer is FALLING 29.44 inches, Wind Sustained NNE 11.8 mph gusting to 25.2 mph. There are reports of trees down with some sporadic power outages in the Rochester area.

High Wind Warning and a Flood Watch

A high wind warning and a Flood Watch is still in effect for this area.

000
WWUS71 KBUF 291441
NPWBUF

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1041 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

NYZ003>008-013-014-292245-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0005.121029T1800Z-121030T1500Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ROCHESTER…NEWARK…FAIR HAVEN…
OSWEGO…WATERTOWN…LOWVILLE…GENESEO…CANANDAIGUA
1041 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

…HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY…

* LOCATIONS…GENESEE VALLEY…FINGER LAKES…AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

* TIMING…EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS…NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.

* IMPACTS…STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH A SATURATED GROUND WILL
RESULT IN DOWNED TREES WHICH CAN BLOCK ROADWAYS AND TAKE OUT
POWER LINES. IT IS UNUSUAL TO GET WINDS THIS STRONG FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. TREES IN THIS AREA ARE ANCHORED AGAINST
THE PREVAILING WEST WIND…SO STRONG WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL
PRODUCE MORE WIND DAMAGE THAN NORMAL FOR THESE WIND SPEEDS.
PINE TREES WITH THEIR SHALLOW ROOT SYSTEMS WILL BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING TOPPLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR…WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES…POWER LINES…AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

&&

000
WGUS61 KBUF 291441
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1041 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-292245-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.121029T1800Z-121030T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…NIAGARA FALLS…MEDINA…ROCHESTER…
NEWARK…FAIR HAVEN…BUFFALO…BATAVIA…WARSAW…GENESEO…
CANANDAIGUA…JAMESTOWN…OLEAN…WELLSVILLE…ORCHARD PARK…
SPRINGVILLE
1041 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

…FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING…

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK…INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES…IN CENTRAL NEW YORK…NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN
WESTERN NEW YORK…ALLEGANY…CATTARAUGUS…CHAUTAUQUA…
GENESEE…LIVINGSTON…MONROE…NIAGARA…NORTHERN ERIE…
ONTARIO…ORLEANS…SOUTHERN ERIE…WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL TRACK INLAND ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF
WESTERN NY AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 1.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL FALL ON GROUND WHICH IS
ALREADY SATURATED FROM RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

* RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS
WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN URBANIZED AREAS. IN
ADDITION… FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE AREA RIVERS
AND CREEKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

Hurricane Sandy Update from the National Hurricane Center 20121029 1100

Here is the 11 AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center for October 29. 2012.

000
WTNT33 KNHC 291439
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD SOON...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL
HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 71.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SOON...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A
FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM...AND...IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING
INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM LONG ISLAND SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND
EXTEND AS FAR INLAND AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
DELAWARE BAY. A WEATHERFLOW REPORT INDICATES A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53
MPH...85 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H...HAS RECENTLY
OCCURRED ON LONG ISLAND AT EATONS NECK NEW YORK.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...OR GALE-FORCE WINDS...ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO LONG ISLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...NEW YORK CITY...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...BY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE
BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane Sandy Update NWS Buffalo

A Flash Flood Watch is Still in Effect

000
WGUS61 KBUF 281957
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
357 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-290400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.121029T1800Z-121030T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…NIAGARA FALLS…MEDINA…ROCHESTER…
NEWARK…FAIR HAVEN…BUFFALO…BATAVIA…WARSAW…GENESEO…
CANANDAIGUA…JAMESTOWN…OLEAN…WELLSVILLE…ORCHARD PARK…
SPRINGVILLE
357 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

…FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING…

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK…INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES…IN CENTRAL NEW YORK…NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN
WESTERN NEW YORK…ALLEGANY…CATTARAUGUS…CHAUTAUQUA…
GENESEE…LIVINGSTON…MONROE…NIAGARA…NORTHERN ERIE…
ONTARIO…ORLEANS…SOUTHERN ERIE…WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL TRACK INLAND ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF WESTERN
NY AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL FALL ON GROUND WHICH IS ALREADY SATURATED
FROM RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

* RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS WILL
ALSO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN URBANIZED AREAS. IN ADDITION…
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

Hurricane Sandy Update from the NWS Buffalo 20121028 2300

High Wind Warning Still in Effect

000
WWUS71 KBUF 290216
NPWBUF

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1016 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

NYZ003>008-013-014-291030-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0005.121029T1800Z-121030T1500Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ROCHESTER…NEWARK…FAIR HAVEN…
OSWEGO…WATERTOWN…LOWVILLE…GENESEO…CANANDAIGUA
1016 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

…HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM
EDT TUESDAY…

* LOCATIONS…GENESEE VALLEY…FINGER LAKES…AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

* TIMING…MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS…NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

* IMPACTS…STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH A SATURATED GROUND WILL
RESULT IN DOWNED TREES WHICH CAN BLOCK ROADWAYS AND TAKE OUT
POWER LINES. IT IS UNUSUAL TO GET WINDS THIS STRONG FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. TREES IN THIS AREA ARE ANCHORED AGAINST THE
PREVAILING WEST WIND…SO STRONG WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL
PRODUCE MORE WIND DAMAGE THAN NORMAL FOR THESE WIND SPEEDS. PINE
TREES WITH THEIR SHALLOW ROOT SYSTEMS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO BEING TOPPLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR…WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES…POWER LINES…AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

National Hurricane Center 2300 Update 20121028

000
WTNT33 KNHC 290247
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY ABOUT TO START ITS NORTHWARD TURN...EXPECTED TO BRING
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY
APPALACHIAN SNOWS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 70.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN
FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS.
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...
280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM.  A NATIONAL
OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT THE WILLOUGHBY DEGAUSSING STATION NEAR
NORFOLK NAVAL STATION VIRGINIA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
45 MPH...72 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 53 MPH...85 KM/H.  A WEATHERFLOW
STATION AT THIMBLE SHOALS VIRGINIA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH...83 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TONIGHT...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...ON MONDAY.  WINDS AFFECTING THE
UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
MARYLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS

NWS Buffalo Forecast for Wayne County and the City of Newark, NY 20121028 1840

Here is the latest weather forecast for Wayne County.  Had showers off and on all day today but probably only about 0.30 inches of rain since this morning.  Weather is expected to go downhill starting tomorrow afternoon with a high wind warning and flood watches posted for the area.  Sandy is quite the storm and is expected to strengthen prior to landfall in the New Jersey Shore area.

NYZ004-290930-
WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…NEWARK
510 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

…HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY…
…FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING…
…LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY…

.TONIGHT…CLOUDY. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY…RAIN. VERY WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT…RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS WITH LOWS AROUND 50. NORTH WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH…BECOMING NORTHEAST. CHANCE OF RAIN 100 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY…RAIN. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EAST WINDS 15 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT…RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN
80 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY…RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…RAIN LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY…RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT…RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY…SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 50. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.SUNDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.

Sandy update for 20121028

Hurricane Sandy is still churning northward in the Atlantic Ocean.  It is currently located off the coast of the North Carolina outer banks with winds of  75 mph.  It is a huge storm in size with a predicted low barometric pressure of 948 millibars.  That is an extremely low pressure considering the “Perfect Storm” of 1993 only came in at 956 millibars.  Looking at the GFS pressure model run @ 06 Z this AM. it looks as if Sandy will actually intensify as it moves ashore in along the central New Jersey coast.

All those in earshot of this blog should take precautions to ensure your safety!  This storm will be long lasting with gusty winds and copious amounts of rainfall.  Numerous power outages are expected.

Forecast updates as they become available.